Tuesday, February 09, 2010

Who will be the next Prime Minister?



Recently the media raised three interesting questions: “Who will be the next PM when the prime minister quits politics in 2011 before the 2012 National Elections, What will happen to the National Alliance Party or the current Government?”

This is a subjective issue and you will get many different answers.  I will try to predict what may happen gauging from public perceptions and opinions of a coalition government’s performance since the 2002 national elections.

So who will be the next PM?  This is easy in an ideal political world where the job will naturally go to the next senior MP after the prime minister in the ruling party’s hierarchical ‘chain of command’.  In this case, it should go to the deputy PM, Sir Puka Temu if the PM quits politics next year as speculated by the newspapers. 

This will not happen because we are not in an ideal political world.  There are many competing interests and shifting alliances within any coalition party government. 

First of all, the PM will not quit politics in 2011 and before the elections.  PM Somare is enjoying the feeling of power and controlling the destiny of some six million citizens that he would still has to extend his record breaking streak of being in politics until after the 2012 national elections.  

More so, no one believes this talk of leaving politics any more.  The people of PNG have heard it many times before, like prior to the 2012 and 2007 elections as predicted.  The PM did not quit politics as speculated by the media like this one.

On a hypothetical note, if the PM was to quit politics in 2011 due to some reason like ill-health, the NA party will most likely see splits in its senor ranks.  Some party members have openly shown that they do not prefer the deputy PM take the reins as they see themselves as the ideal choice for the top job.  A further outcome is that the NA party may not do too well in the 2012 polls without the stabilising presence of its draw-card, the grand chief; the glue holding the NA party together.

With due respects to other NA party members, no one is eminently qualified with the required seniority, depth of public administration knowledge and experience; and political  maturity to succeed the PM Somare than the deputy PM, Sir Puka Temu.  Sir Puka has the edge over all the NA party’s regional deputies as none were effective departmental heads like him before entering politics. 

As apart from the deputy PM, there is another option that may seem a controversial outcome but not impossible.  This option could be another record breaker for the grand chief that will be unbeatable in both PNG and Commonwealth politics.  If PM Somare was really serious about elevating the status of PNG women in his twilight years of politics, he will give his job to the best-performing MP in the coalition government: Dame Carol Kidu.  The Dame as an MP has no equal and her actions speak louder than words as she is well supported by a competent Secretary running an effective department than most of her peers.

This decisive action by grand chief Somare will be in full recognition for the tireless efforts of a lone women MP in parliament (and one of PNG’s best lawmakers in recent times).  This will upset the men in parliament but they will soon get over it to see that good governance, accountability, responsibility and ‘sanity’ returns to both parliament; and government before the 2012 national elections.

Finally, I predict PM Somare is not yet ready to quit politics in 2011 and before the 2012 national elections.  There are still many outstanding political reforms left by former PM, Sir Mekere that this government has yet to progress and this is no time to be quitting politics.



  1. Certain events are unfolding that put out blinkers to this question of the next PM. The media and political commentators have post those key pointers, When it will be, Who it'll be and Why it will be that person. Reginald has continued his 'flashing or switching of the blinkers' to those key questions as events unfold in a more finer manner than before 2002 Elections. Blinkers from 'Building Blocks' Frank Senge Kolma over that period have also answered alot of our doubts, and, cleared our minds to the Why it would be Sir Puka, or Why it would be father of the Nation himself to continue until...
    My prediction raises a new dimension to the high speed shifting and twisting turn of PNG politics. Like Reginald and every other independent thinkers, my mind says, Sir Puka because that is the conventional way of passing on the mantle of leadership. My heart however says otherwise because the flashings of the unfolding events put the final say back to the Grand chief himself.
    I beleive the grand wizard of PNG politics has allowed and has been in control of the events and blinkers that have been flashed up to now to test the general mood before he makes that final decision. The decision is not Who will be the next PM but When it will be and why it will be on that particular day he announces his decision. And, it will be a decision that will be no way within the conventional political processes, or from within the top class of the NA elites. It will be a decision that comes from right within the heart of the Sana wisdom. And, taking a sneak view at the Sana wisdom I bring the readers minds much closer to two possible candidates. One will be a leader who shares the same heartbeart of the Grand chief but has let his mind do the talking to convince the Grand chief that he's the one. He is not the chosen one, he has been there all along and will be there after the PM vacates the Chair. The Other is a leader who also shares the Grand Chief's heartbeat, and who has lived half of his entire life, upholding and keeping the conventions the Judeo-Christain guides that gave birth to PNG politics and every other major percepts and Statutes that hold the very core of the future of our nation. He has been ushered into active politics but has been kept waiting there for that right time when the grand wizard says, come my son, the time has come for you to take over from me.
    Yes, like Reginald, I want to beleive that the chosen one will be someone with the professional experience of Sir Puka and the acute qualities of Dame Carol, but my heart settles on someone who is a combination of the three, Sir Puka's careered common-sense, Dame Carol's unique mindset and wits of that other one that shares Sir Michael's heartbeart. It is almost like the reflections of the Bible...but Only the wise Sana knows when the time is right for that Joshua...to take the six million into a new dimension that maintains stability yet gives a new spark at the same time.

  2. Anonymous1:28 PM

    Next PM shall emerge from the next elections. Grand Chief and the current crop that he has with him have nothing new to give to PNG except to corruptly and unethically bankroll this nation's public purse to the great detriment of the health, education and basic life support systems of PNG and her six million people minus them. The thieving bunch must go forthwith!!!!!

  3. Papua Tauna10:02 AM

    I agree if its not the Deputy PM than the next best person is Dame Carol Kidu. She will do a better job than Somare and all the men put together in the men's Haus Tambaran.

    So how about it Michael? Carol kidu has done so much in only three terms while you are still struggling with your style of poor leadership.

    PNG needs a woman Prime Minister to prosper and be a honest less corrupt country in future.

  4. Papua Tauna11:13 AM

    Papuans are now totally fed up with the poor leadership of Michael Somare and do not believe in him anymore.

    Papuans are calling for a referandum this year for autonomy and if not then full independence like what Bougainville is doing. Papua has remained very underdeveloped since Independence and all because of a very corrupt political system promoted by Somare and his cronies to stay in power and steam lillions of the people's money to enrich themselves.

    It is time Papua broke away to properly govern itself for the sake of its future generations. Somare has ruined PNG and we do not need him now.

  5. Anonymous12:42 PM

    In the choosing of Leadership for the Nation of Papua New Guinea, attention must be drawn to The Word of God(Bible) where the Lord gave directions in Deut 17:14-20.God gave specific commands to the nation of Israel then, to the Nation of Papua New Guinea today.Why look for any other criteria for the choosing of leaders ? Seek the direction of the Lord in this matter... sign..Mariner